Saturday, June 29, 2019

Marc Faber on US China Trade War, the Japan Trap

With global markets struggling for direction after a rocky start to the year, Dr Doom has been conspicuously absent from the conversation. Investment adviser Marc Faber, 72, who adopted the nickname in 1987 after a newspaper column highlighted his contrarian outlook on markets, has had a quiet six months.

Faber – a once regular guest on business news shows such as CNBC’s Squawk Box and Bloomberg Television – has faded from view since the publication of his October newsletter The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report for comments that were condemned as racist. This included a passage where Faber used offensive racial references in laying out a bleak picture for the US if its early immigration flows had been from Africa rather than Europe. He has since been dropped from the booking lists for programmes at Fox News and CNBC, according to Reuters.

At the time, Faber told Canada’s Global & Mail he stood by the remarks, saying in an email exchange that he did not regret writing the passage and that he had a free right to express his views.

When This Week in Asia spoke to Faber at his suite at the Grand Hyatt in Hong Kong this year, he sounded resigned to the loss of his appearances on business television.

“Everything in life and the universe has a timeline, it is transient. In other words, what you have today, you may not have tomorrow,” Faber said.

Known for a keen interest in history, and the works of innovators such as Russian “wave theory” economist Nikolai Kondratiev, Faber has slipped from the public spotlight just as global markets have entered a period of heightened volatility.

Faber was widely considered media gold at times of crisis for his tendency to speak candidly, tapping a pragmatism that seems tied to his upbringing in Zurich.

Faber also has a solid record in calling the market correctly. Among Barron’s Roundtable members in 2002 to 2011, he scored the second highest annualised return of 23.4 per cent among the eight annual stock-pickers, according to Pundit Tracker.

In February, the current market turmoil had not set in, yet Faber foresaw what was to become a major turning point for the markets, spelling out a gloomy forecast just days before the Dow Jones Industrials would record its largest single-day point decline.

“I don’t think markets will be very attractive this year and I want to own some cash,” Faber said at the time.

On May 1 he wrote in a monthly commentary that January’s high of 2,872 for the S&P 500 was a “major top”.

He advised investors to consider US government bonds, even as he cautioned in the long term that the US dollar was a “doomed currency”.

“My view is that a cash portfolio is safer with Treasuries than with banks,” Faber said.

In April, Faber told This Week in Asia he still favoured US Treasuries at the current yield on the 10-year near 2.9 per cent.

“The whole investment community, with a few exceptions, is negative on Treasuries. I have a different view,” Faber said. He holds about 30 per cent of his own investible assets in US government debt...

Saturday, June 22, 2019

Faber: Can’t See Another Bull Market in My Lifetime

Emerging market stocks will outperform U.S. equities when another bull market comes, noted bear Marc Faber contended Tuesday. But Faber sees one problem — he believes markets will not enjoy another bull run in his lifetime.

Still, the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report publisher sees a potential recovery for some emerging market economies, particularly Russia and Brazil, which have endured a recent slowdown.

“There are some that are extremely depressed that could have large rebound potential,” Faber said during a Tuesday evening panel discussion at the Inside ETFs conference in Hollywood, Florida.

Stock prices have broadly fallen worldwide this year, with lower commodities prices and fears of a global slowdown contributing to investor concerns. Economies dependent on natural resources have been hit particularly hard. Brazil and Russia, once stars of the emerging world, have been damaged by oil as well as political issues.

While Faber has made a name on pessimism, he contended that bright spots for potential growth still exist in emerging markets. He pointed to Cambodia and Vietnam, among other Asian economies.

“I wouldn’t take an across-the-board negative view about emerging economies,” Faber said.

Another investor on the panel Tuesday stressed that market watchers should not package all emerging economies into one basket. Marten Hoekstra, CEO of Emerging Global Advisors, is particularly optimistic about growth prospects for India, the world’s second-most populous country.

His funds have attempted to benefit from consumer demand there through consumer discretionary and staple stocks, as well as health care, telecom and utilities companies. While Emerging Global’s India Consumer ETF (INCO) has fallen this year, Hoekstra touted its prospects for long-term investors as consumer spending power grows in India.

He stressed that the Indian economy does not rely on oil or natural resources, which reduces its downside risk if the commodities crunch persists.

“If you’re generally negative on oil, you’re probably bullish on India,” Hoekstra said.

Mark Yusko, founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, said during his annual “bold predictions” talk on Monday that India had attracted his attention and would perform better than most emerging economies.

Despite Hoekstra’s optimism, widely followed commodities commentator Dennis Gartman, who was also on the panel Tuesday, said that he had no immediate plans to invest in emerging market economies.

“It is the continued reliance upon commodity prices that causes me a great deal of concern,” he said.

Gartman contended that corruption in some emerging market governments reduces the safety of investing in those locales.

- Source, CNBC

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Marc Faber: The Coming Pension Crisis And Its Subsequent Fallout

Returning SBTV guest Marc Faber, editor and publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report”, warns about the under-funding in public and private pensions. 

Will there be pitchforks when pensioners realize there is no money available for their retirement?

- Source, SBTV

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Marc Faber: What should a Turkish investor do?

After successfully anticipating the 1987 Wall Street crisis, world-renowned investor Marc Faber, nicknamed kanal Doctor Doomsday ', answered the questions of economy journalist Erkan Öz in the Real Economy program on Youtube.

Faber made evaluations about the future of the world economy and Bitcoin.

Faber on the strong appearance of the dollar; While Central Banks like Europe, China and Japan are printing money, the Fed is going to shrink the balance sheet, and in this case, the Dollar remains relatively valuable against other currencies, but US President Donald Trump is not happy with the situation. Or Trump thinks the Fed is making a mistake. Who knows, maybe Fed has made a mistake. Kim

Faber said there was a significant slowdown in the global economy, a similar slowdown was observed in 2015, but this recession did not follow a recession, but this time he saw a high recession. He considered the possibility of recession as ın a higher probability than many people believe Res.

He said the Fed believes it will lower interest rates and that if the exchange rate falls by 10 percent, they will do so.
If you are in Turkey, you may need to keep more horses and silver

Faber reminded that the German economy was in trouble with the inflation between the years 1919-1923 and the Germans, who kept gold and silver in their hands, were lucky. Faber emphasized that he lost most of the population during that hyperinflation period and therefore bölüm It may be a good idea to keep gold and silver ett.

"The question is how much (gold and silver) should keep?" He reminded Faber, "If you live in Turkey, according to those who live in Switzerland or Japan may need to hold a larger amount," he said.

Faber also loved gold, but the central banks of the world compared to the amount of money in gold, silver and platinum performance could not be expected to draw attention.

renowned experts said that investors should be ready to diversify geographically, "If you are in Turkey and Turkey in all of your money if you are in an're more vulnerable to losses in value against the Turkish lira," he said.

Faber emphasized that it would be easier for investors to F hedge orsa themselves in a possible downtrend if part of their portfolio is located in the US, European or Asian markets.
”Bitcoin can become standard“

Faber said that he believes that 20-30 years later, the current children would not use paper money, he said:

Ebilir Blockchain technology is very interesting and Bitcoin can become a standard here. It's worth playing with a small portion of your money.

- Source, Paraanaliz