, Marc Faber Blog

Friday, February 8, 2019

Marc Faber: I Am My Own Central Banker

Everyone always says, I want to buy low and I want to sell high. So I think for me, of course I own a lot of gold, and I need to buy more to keep asset allocation between 25% in Real Estate, 25% in equities, 25% cash and bonds, and 25% gold. 

I need to buy more. So for me this is a very happy event. I don’t like to buy gold at $1,900 like in 2011. I like to buy it here or lower.

Gold Broker: Do you think it will break under $1,000 like some people say?

Marc Faber: Look. The forecasting record of people is horrible, in particular, the forecasting record of the Federal Reserve. So, I don’t know, maybe it will go below $1,000 but my sense is that it will not stay below $1,000. 

I would use the current weakness as a buying opportunity. I’m telling everybody, you as an investor, and me as an investor, we cannot trust the government.

I am my own central banker. I keep my own physical gold. I do not trust anyone of these (unprintable word).

- Source, Money Talks

Friday, February 1, 2019

Marc Faber: Stocks, Gold, Crypto, Petroyuan, New Silk Road and World War

Renown Swiss investor and publisher of "The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report" Dr. Marc Faber discusses the global markets, housing and bond bubbles, central bank manipulation, gold, Trump, the petroyuan, the New Silk Road and what a potential conflict between the U.S. and China might look like as old empires die and new ones are born.

- Source, Geopolitics & Empire

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Marc Faber Speaks on the Dreary State of US stocks

"The slowdown in US economy seen since the start of 2018 and it is visible in the performance of US bonds", says Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report". 

He adds weak oil prices, signal economic slowdown.

- Source, ET Now

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Dr Doom Issues a Stark Warning to All Investors

What many people missed and misunderstood in the early 1980s we had a major turning point. We went from consumer price inflation to asset inflation.

‘The first to rally were bonds after September 81. The second were stocks, August 82, and then real estate prices went up, art prices went up and so forth. But real assets under performed financial assets.

‘Now you look back at the period, 81, that is now more than 30 years ago. 2017-2018 we had in the world some consumer price inflation, especially in services, like insurance, but the big inflation was in assets. Asset prices kept on going up, and each time they came down there were more monetary injections by central banks.’

‘I think the world is conditioned that this asset inflation will continue. But I think there is a probability — that is very high — that the way consumer price inflation peaked out, in 1980, we may have a peak now in asset inflation. And it is conceivable to me that, for a very long time, like the Japanese market after 89 that peaked out at close to 40,000 and we are now at around 22,000, you know this is almost 30 years that for a long time stocks will not go up.

‘That is a possibility, and that also real estate will not be a very good investment […]. These are things that I think when you ask me if you ask me at the future what do you see. I think there is a real danger that this colossal asset inflation we have that created a lot of wealth inequality, that this is coming to an end.’

Friday, January 11, 2019

Why Marc Faber is looking to invest in badly hurt Indian stocks

If we look at the markets around the world, they have always been driven very much by the S&P500. In other words when S&P500 goes up, other markets go up some more and some less. Like in 2017, all the Asian markets grossly outperformed the US, and also European markets in 2018 most Asian markets have underperformed the US. I have to say there is an exception, which is India that has performed reasonably well, not that well in the US dollarNSE 2.45 % terms, but in local currency it is at least up for the year.

Since the beginning of the year if you analyse statistics, there was a slowdown in economic activity and in particular after August, business fell off a cliff. I talked to some people in August and they were still very optimistic about the future and in November they wrote that the revenues are 20 per cent below a year ago.

In other words they totally misread the economic slowdown that was going to take place in the second half and this economic slowdown is actually visible in the performance of bonds in the US. If you look at the stock market between October, early November and today, we are down say plus/minus 10 per cent, depending on the index.

Some indices are actually down from the peak by 20 per cent. But in the bond market, the 10-year US treasury has rallied since early November by 10 per cent. I think we will now consolidate and I am just saying that bond market was beginning to recognise the economic slowdown earlier than the stock market.

Monday, January 7, 2019

Asian markets have underperformed US, India remains an exception

Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report , believes the reforms implemented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi are favourable for India. The only concern over Indian equities is their valuations, he told ETNow in an interview.

- Source, ET

Thursday, January 3, 2019

Marc Faber speaks on the dreary December for the US stocks

"The slowdown in US economy seen since the start of 2018 and it is visible in the performance of US bonds", says Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report". He adds weak oil prices, signal economic slowdown/ recession. Listen in!

- Source, Times Now

Tuesday, December 18, 2018

This May Be The Last Opportunity To Buy Oil Below $60

It was back in November 2009 when Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report made the call that gold would never go below $1,000 an ounce ever again. So far, he has been correct. I believe something similar can be said of oil today. Not that I’m calling a bottom just yet, but once oil breaks back through $60, I don’t think oil will fall back below it ever again. Too bold a call? Maybe, but here are my reasons.

Iran and Venezuela Not Coming Back Anytime Soon

First, we have supply severely reduced from Iran and Venezuela. Historically, Venezuela has produced as high as 3.45 million barrels a month, a high hit in 1997. Before the oil crash of 2014, it was pumping about 2.5 million a day, and ever since the country’s collapse, that figure has gone down steadily, now to 1.43 million, a day and will likely fall further as the society there unfortunately continues to deteriorate.

The country’s idea for its oil-backed cryptocurrency, the Petro, as an OPEC standard to save its economy can barely be called half-baked. Socialist controls have not let up, nor will they without some sort of coup or revolution, which would temporarily disrupt current oil exports even more severely. As for Iran, before the nuclear deal, exports reached a low of 3 million barrels a day. 

As of September, exports were at 3.76 million a day, so we have about another 760,000 barrels a day to fall. Taken together, I estimate that for these two countries, we will see a combined fall of 1 million barrels a day by Q1 of next year.

- Source, Seeking Alpha

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Overseas Investment Exits Hit a Record High

This month, foreign portfolio investors have sold Indian stocks and bonds the most in two years after a declining rupee made US assets more attractive, and rising global interest rates rendered the carry trade unviable.

Total bond and stock net sales by overseas funds touched a high of Rs 31,984 crore so far this month, show data from National Securities Depository.

Exits may quicken towards the year-end as funds compute performance bonuses for the year, dealers said. They sold a net of Rs 19,810 crore in equities, the largest monthly quantum this year. Debt sales amounted to Rs 12,167 crore.

“There is a flight to safety amid the improving US economy and rising global rates,” said Ashutosh Khajuria, CFO, Federal Bank. “Pressure has been mounting on the emerging markets. If India demonstrates better performance on macroeconomic indicators like iinflation, current account and fiscal deficit, those investors would come back again.”

This year, overseas investors have net sold Rs 93,481 crore of financial assets in India, the highest ever sale at least since 2002, data showed.

US unemployment, a key economic metric for the world’s biggest economy, fell to levels last seen about five decades ago, signaling a strong labour market and rising wages. That would mean the US policymakers would continue to raise headline lending rates.

“Rising US yields along with improving global economies have triggered investment exits from emerging markets,” said Sanjiv Bhasin, Executive VP-Markets, IIFL Securities. Softer oil prices and a stable rupee should reverse the market trend, he said.

“The debt market is going through uncertainties in the non-banking sector. Once it is settled, investors should regain confidence,” Bhasin said.

Two weeks ago, the US benchmark yield climbed to 3.23%, its highest level since May 2011. High US yields are prompting dollar funds to return to US assets that carry no currency risks.

Emerging market currencies have turned volatile, risking global investors’ investment returns on respective currencies. The rupee hit a record low of 74.48 per dollar and is one of the worst performing emerging market currencies.

The central bank did not raise the benchmark rate in its October bi-monthly monetary policy.

According to Marc Faber, a global market guru, tight monetary policies are good for the rupee, but not so good for the stock market.