, Marc Faber Blog

Saturday, September 22, 2018

Mark Faber: Make Bear Market Preparations

Wednesday, September 5, 2018

Why you Need to Pay Attention to the Market Pessimists...

There’s always market pessimists to tell you “I told you so.”

‘Permabear’ is a term used for pundits like Societe Generale’s Albert Edwards or newsletter writer Marc Faber who predict market calamity on a weekly or monthly basis without respect to recent market activity.

Permabears are really only the tip of the iceberg, though. The number of pundits who are pessimistic 60 or 80 per cent of the time is far larger than the count of devout permabears.

The end result is that there is never a shortage of dramatic calls for catastrophe so when anything truly bad happens in markets, business TV will find someone to gloatingly announce: “I told you so, but you wouldn’t listen.”

The Financial Times’ (free to read with registration) Alphaville site discussed this phenomenon in “The hunt for the next Nostradamus.”

“To state the obvious: for every buyer there must be a seller. Wild views about future market events, long or short, should be treated with the same scrutiny. Claims that Tesla is going to $4,000, or the Fed’s quantitative easing program is going to cause hyper-inflation, should be judged on their merits, not on the extent to which they tap into fears over another crisis… Brave, contrarian predictions are supposed to lean against the kind of herd mentality that drives exuberant valuations. Think Templeton during the Nasdaq bubble for instance. But perhaps the bubble is now in predicting the next systemic crisis, rather than assuming everything will be OK.”

As Alphaville points out, this doesn’t mean investors can always ignore pessimism. New short positions put in place by famed fund manager Jim Chanos, for example, are always worth further research. It is a key point that Mr. Chanos has been correctly bearish numerous times on many short trades, not just once. As a foreign exchange trader once told me, “It’s easy to be bearish, you have to be bearish and make money.”

- Source, Globe and Mail

Saturday, September 1, 2018

US driving Turkey to quit NATO, boost business with Russia & China

Mounting US pressure on Turkey is hardly a good diplomatic strategy for Washington and its allies, says veteran investor Marc Faber. Ankara has other countries to make alliances with.

“[US President Donald] Trump doesn’t pursue foreign diplomacy. He is just like an elephant in a porcelain shop. He picks on this, picks on that, but there is no diplomacy at all,” Faber told Turkey’s Anadolu news agency.

Turkey has some leverage regarding the recent tension between Washington and Ankara, he said. “This is the Trump card that Turkey have – NATO. NATO has significant bases in Turkey. In the long run basically Turkey has two options; it can be closer to Europe and stay in NATO, or it could join the Shanghai cooperation.”

“That would imply that Turkey abandoned or have less relationships with the West and more relationships with Russia and China. This is a possibility that [Turkish President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has. I think Trump doesn’t realize that this option is very realistic.”

Faber noted that after the harsh sell-off that hit the Turkish markets, now is a good time to invest in the country. “People always say they would like to buy low and sell high. Turkish stocks are valued in US dollars. Now it’s in buying range. I think I will buy some Turkish stocks, ETF’s [Exchange Traded Funds]. I own some [Turkish] bonds. It’s not the huge portion of my portfolio but yes I own some Turkish debts. I think it’s the time to buy Turkish assets,” Faber said.

The Turkish economy has recently been hit by a record depreciation of the national currency – the lira. On Friday, Trump doubled tariffs on aluminum and steel from Turkey in response to the detention of a US citizen. American pastor Andrew Brunson is being held on terrorism charges in Turkey, facing up to 35 years in prison for his alleged role in a failed coup in 2016.

In response, Erdogan announced a boycott of US electronic devices, including Apple iPhones. Turkey has also hiked tariffs on US goods such as tobacco, alcohol, cars, cosmetics and others.

- Source, Russia Today

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Swiss investor Faber says now good time to invest in Turkish assets

Renowned global investor and markets commentator Marc Faber, best known for being a market pessimist which earned him the nickname "Dr. Doom", said Wednesday Turkish assets could present a good investment opportunity at the moment.

Although the economic strategist has been warning since 2010 that global markets are headed for a 1987-style market crash, Faber told Anadolu Agency (AA) in a phone interview that he didn't foresee such a grim future for the Turkish economy.

"People always say they would like to buy low and sell high. Well, Turkish stocks are valued in U.S dollars. At the moment they are within buying range. I am going to buy some Turkish assets, ETF's (Exchange-Traded Funds)," he said.

Stating that he already had some Turkish bonds, although not in very large quantities, Faber said now was a good time to invest in Turkish assets.

Faber, who is also the publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report", said Turkey must reduce its sensitivities, narrow its trade deficit and close its current account deficit to not be affected by volatility in the coming period.

Reiterating that the foreign and economic policies of the United States were not right, the Swiss investor said: "Trump is not pursuing diplomacy in foreign policy. He is like a bull in a china shop. He keeps picking on everyone; there is no diplomacy whatsoever. "

"Turkey's Trump card is NATO. NATO has crucial bases in Turkey. Turkey has two options in the long-term; it can stay close to Europe and stay in NATO or join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This would indicate that Turkey has left the West or that it will be in less contact with it, becoming closer with Russia and China instead. This is an option in Mr. Erdoğan's hand. I think Trump does not understand that this is a very real possibility," he said adding that Turkey was not without alternatives.

Underlining that U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies could drag the world into recession, Faber said, "Economists around Trump believe that imports from China are responsible for the U.S.' trade deficit. China is the indicator of the US.' declining competitive power. The U.S. has had low capital investment over the last 20-30years. Economists believed that consumption should be increased to increase growth. The result is naturally an increase in trade deficit. "

Faber pointed out that the consequences of the global trade wars initiated by the U.S. could be devastating, saying "Trade wars are complete madness. They are continuing at a time the global economy is already slowing down. Just look at copper prices now, for example, they have completely collapsed. This is a sign that the global economy is slowing down. I think we are headed towards a recession."

President Trump announced on Aug. 10 that the U.S. was doubling aluminum and steel import tariffs on Turkey, fixing them at 20 percent and 50 percent, respectively.

In retaliation, Turkey also increased tariffs on several U.S.-origin products, including alcohol and tobacco products and cars, according to a new presidential decree published early Wednesday in the official gazette.

- Source, Daily Sabah

Tuesday, August 21, 2018

Marc Faber: The Armegeddon is Coming

Dr. Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland and obtained a PhD in Economics at the University of Zurich. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr. Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In 1990, he set up his own business.

- Source, Old Radio

Monday, August 6, 2018

Trade Wars to Accelerate Decline of US Empire as China and India Dominance Grows

US influence on the global economy has been gradually falling, and emerging economies like China and India can overtake the US as global leaders, according to Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

“The US as an empire against the rest of the world peaked in 1950s or 1960s. Then, there have been other countries that have become more powerful, in particular China and now increasingly India. The US empire and its influence on the world is diminishing and has been diminishing for quite some time,” he told RT. The trade war may accelerate this “mutation” in the global economic balance “with other countries becoming more important and the US less important,”Faber said.

According to Faber, the US is likely to be the biggest loser from the trade war it started. “The winners in a real trade war would be everyone except the US. The Europeans would trade more with Asia, and the Asians would trade more with Europe than the US. There would be more trade between the emerging economies and China and vice versa,” Faber said.

Another winner from the trade would be Russia since China would buy more resources from the country, while Moscow would buy more from Beijing, he said.

The US stock market has thus far ignored the news about the global trade war, Faber notes. “But if there is trade war, it is not good for the global economic growth. The global economy is slowing down already. I think it would be a big mistake to go ahead with the trade war.”

The countries most exposed to the trade war in emerging markets are Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, due to their fiscal problems, growing deficits, and weak currencies amid large amounts of foreign debt, Faber said.

With the global economy financed by soaring debt since the last global crisis of 2008-2009 another recession is likely to come, but its shape is not yet known, according to the investor.

Despite the recent strength of the US dollar, especially against the currencies of emerging economies, Faber says the trend will not continue in the long run. He says the best way to protect individual investments in times of turmoil is to diversify the portfolio with cash, bonds, precious metals, and real estate.

- Source, Russia Today

Thursday, August 2, 2018

Marc Faber: Won’t be surprised if Indian markets correct 20%

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said he would not be surprised if Indian markets corrected 20% from current levels, but did not give a timeline for such a correction. In a phone interview from Chiang Mai, Thailand, the Swiss investor expressed concerns over the trade war, and said it is not beneficial to anyone.

What do you think could be the repercussions of global trade war on the world economy and markets?

There is less or hardly any growth in Europe. The Chinese economy has been slowing down, as well as other Asian economies. The US stock market by any measure is highly priced.

We have recessions in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey. We have currency weaknesses around the globe in dollar terms, which is a sign of monetary tightening, and now we have also this so-called trade war. Some people may suffer more, and some less but a trade war cannot be beneficial for anyone. In general, it is not a positive for the global economy or the financial markets.

Indian markets recorded new high today (Thursday). Do you think the rally in India is sustainable or do you think there is a correction in the offing for benchmark equity indices?

When (Indian) market hit a high earlier this year in January, my sense was that high would be an important one, but we made a new high.

Let’s put it this way, when I travel around the world and I visit financial institutions, first time India is really a subject. For the first time, investors think that India has an experience and a meaningful fundamental improvement due to the Modi government. They are not sure if it is the right time to invest now in India. Over the next 10 years, we want to have some money in India, regardless.

If you look at the S&P (500), and Indian stock market over the next 10 years, you will make more money in India than American shares. This has been my view for the last three years, and this remains my view.

Of course, if the global stock markets are going down— all the major markets, except India are going down. When everything is weak, and India is still strong, I will be reluctant to buy the market which is strong. It (rally) may last a little bit longer but it doesn’t mean it is good value. Valuations are not attractive other than a few exceptions.

How do you see it faring from here?

The bull market in India started in late 2015, We have seen a big move, I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a 20% correction. I cannot give you a date though.

If you put all your money now in Indian stocks, the reward in my opinion will not be great, as there are internal and external risks.

- Source, Livemint

Sunday, July 29, 2018

Marc Faber: Geopolitics, Dollar Hegemony and Precious Metals

It's unfortunate that "hate speech" arbitrarily defined and dictated by the left is suppressing free speech and the search for objective truth. "Thank God white people populated America," uttered by Marc might have been said in a less offensive manner, but to remove the truth-seeking thoughts of a freedom-loving, non-racist intellectual of Dr. Faber's stature is unconscionable and ultimately destructive, most of all to minorities.

We are delighted to have Dr. Faber with us to discuss the global markets as he once did on all major business channels, at Barron's, and other mainstream print media. We ask Marc about Trump's economic policies, global monetary policy, stocks, bonds and precious metals, geopolitics, dollar hegemony, the Petro yuan, and much more.

Thursday, July 26, 2018

Marc Faber: If This Unfolds, It Will Radically Alter The World Overnight

Eric King: “I know you’ve had some issues coming into the United States, where you’ve been in an airport where they have taken you to the side and put you in a room (Dr. Faber laughs), which seems preposterous. But this move to more of a police state in the West, does that have you concerned?”

Dr. Marc Faber: “Well, that is another possibility, that we go more to a fascist regime rather than to socialism. That is a possibility that we need to entertain. And it is very clear to me, having grown up in the 1950s and 1960s, that today there is much more control of what you and I do. It’s stricter and more unpleasant…

We have far more regulations, far more laws, that actually are very negative for the small businessman, from which actually the economy grows the most. That also has a negative impact on growth. I would say whatever scenario you look at, the only scenario that could boost growth, briefly, substantially, would be war.”

- Source, King World News