Friday, January 27, 2017

Marc Faber: Investors Too Bullish on US as Dollar is Currently Overvalued

Investment guru Marc Faber warns that investors are too bullish about the U.S. and that the American currency is overvalued.

“Investors are too bullish about the U.S. and far too negative about emerging-market economies. I also think they are neglecting Japan and European equities so anything outside the US is probably from my perspective more attractive,” he told India’s CNBC TV 18.

The U.S. dollar “is too strong” and “is probably overvalued at this level already,” said Faber, also known as "Dr. Doom" for his often pessimistic and apocalyptic market predictions.

“It may overshoot further which may then cause a problem for the Federal Reserve because as they said they basically plan to have three interest rate increase in 2017. But if the dollar is too strong maybe they can't do it,” he said.

The Federal Reserve "can have other central banks print money for them for a while and then in 2017 possibly the dollar becomes too strong and the U.S. economy rather weakens than strengthens then they can print again themselves. They have an excuse," he said. "I still maintain that central banks will keep on feeding the world with excess liquidity," he said.

“Valuations in the U.S. are at historically very high levels whereas elsewhere they are relatively inexpensive valuations. So, I would focus on foreign markets and I would focus on sectors that were out of favor for a long time,” he said of investing strategy for the new year.

Oil and mining companies, financials and tech are among his favorite sectors for 2017, he said, adding that he sees a lot of potential in agricultural commodities.

“People will tell you that emerging markets performed poorly in 2016 and that the U.S. was the only game in town. But let me just say that in U.S. dollars in 2016 the Russian index was up 51 percent, Brazil 63 percent, Kazakhstan 66 percent, Thailand 19 percent, Indonesia, 19 percent, Karachi 40 percent, Vietnam 30 percent,” he explained.

“Some markets have actually performed very well. We turn to individual stocks some stocks have done very well in 2016 in particular the sectors that were very depressed like oil and gas and mining companies that is until recently have weakened but on the year they are still up strongly,” Faber said.

- Source, NewsMax

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Trump trade war will hurt US more than China

If President-elect Donald Trump's rhetoric ends up fueling a trade war with China, it's the U.S. that will take it on the chin, Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told CNBC on Friday.

"Mr. Trump is not particularly keen on China," Faber told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday. "There may be some trade war escalation or trade restrictions with China, which in my view would rather be negative for the U.S. than for China."

Trump has certainly set his sights on China. On the campaign trail, Trump repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency in order to give its exports an advantage over U.S.-made goods, and he threatened to slap a tariff of up to 45 percent on Chinese imports.

While China's yuan has fallen against the U.S. dollar in recent months, policymakers on the mainland have been intervening to support the currency, not weaken it.

But Faber, who is also known as Dr. Doom for his usually pessimistic predictions, noted that China wouldn't be easily cowed.

"China does not depend on the U.S. The U.S. is still its largest export destination as a country, but taken together, all the emerging markets are for China much more important," Faber noted.

China exported about $482 billion in goods to the U.S. last year, more than any other country exported to the United States, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. The U.S. exported about $116 billion in goods to China in 2015, putting its goods trade deficit $366 billion.

That compared with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) alone importing $211.55 billion from China in 2015, while exporting around $134.25 billion to the mainland, according to data posted in November by the trade bloc.

- Source, CNBC

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Marc Fabers Investment Predictions for 2017

In general volatility will increase though volatility has been quite high in 2016 . At the beginning of last year, we dropped to 1810 on the S&P and then we closed over 2200. So we had a big move in the market and then we had currency moves that were also very strong. Some currencies went down but others appreciated against the US dollar – bitcoins, the Brazilian Real and the Russian Rouble. It was a year where you could make a lot of money and also lose a lot of money depending on how you were positioned.

For the year, I do not know but for the near future, I have essentially three views. First off all, the US economy is like a supertanker or a sailboat. It is not easy to turn it around and come back to where you have been in terms of prosperity. In general, Mr Trump’s policies will fail to lift economic growth rates significantly.

US stocks, compared to emerging markets or European companies or Japanese stocks, are significantly ahead of themselves. In 2017, emerging markets will outperform the US either by going down less than the US or by going up substantially more than the US. So I would essentially avoid the US and rather invest in emerging economies including India. 

The second view I have is that recently investors have been obsessed with growth in the United States and with interest rates going up because the Fed has said that they would essentially increase the Fed fund rates three times this year but in the US, the treasury bond market is grossly oversold and for the next three months, we can have a rebound in US treasuries. Short-term and long term interest rates in the US are going to ease again in the next three months. You could get the 5% to 10% upside move in US treasuries.

- Source, ET

Sunday, January 15, 2017

Marc Faber: Trump rally may not last long


History shows that the initial bump in markets might not stick around in the longer term, says Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.

- Source, CNBC

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Marc Faber Discusses, Is Donald Trump the Next Ronald Regan?

Numerous people have compared victory of Donald Trump to Ronald Regan who became US president in 1980 and started his job in 1981 and they say well there will be a Trump bull market like the Regan bull market in the 80s. 

First of all when Regan got elected the market rallied into November 28 1980 but afterwards it went into bear market for two years until August 1982 and then afterwards I admit it had a huge bull run until 1987, Dow Jones from 800 to 2,700. But the point is that in November 1980 when Regan got elected there was a huge change in leadership. 

A wave from oil and gas which at that time made up to 28 percent of the S&P 500 to other stocks to this inflation beneficiaries and regardless of how you look at the world whether you are positive about Trump, negative or positive about the US dollar regardless of that that we are reaching a point which is also supported by the recent market action where we have a huge change in leadership away from stocks like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google to more basic industries to come out of their related companies.

- Source, Marc Faber via CNBC

Monday, January 9, 2017

Clear indicators of dollar and world market collapse, heres why!


What will happen in 2017? For Economic, Gold, Silver Prices, US & World Economy, Debt, Dollar, Currencies & Stock Market Predictions on Collapse, Crisis and Crash by Top Economists and Investors.


US Fed not expanding asset base; dollar overvalued

Asserting that the central banks in Europe and Japan will keep feeding excess liquidity to the world, Marc Faber believes that the US Fed is not expanding its asset base. While European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are doing so, flows out of Europe and Japan will lead to weakening of the euro and yen and strengthen the dollar, he said. The editor of Gloom Bloom & Doom Report told CNBC-TV18 that contrary to popular opinion that emerging markets have performed poorly in 2016, any market outside the US looks very attractive now especially in terms of valuations. 

Investors are too bullish about the US, negative about emerging markets, and are neglecting Japan and Europe, he said. India is much better placed and has greater potential to grow than Western economies, Faber said. Corporate profits have still room to expand, he added. 

Fundamentally, the dollar is overvalued and valuations in US markets are at historical highs, he said. Any further strengthening of the US dollar will curb the US Federal Reserve’s capability to raise interest rates, Faber said. 

The Fed on Thursday raised rates by 25 basis points and in the past indicated the possibility of three interest rate hikes in 2017. Oil and mining companies, financials and tech figure among his favourite sectors for 2017, he said, adding that he sees a lot of upside potential in agricultural commodities.

- Source, CNBC

Monday, January 2, 2017

I’m Against The Demonetisation Drive In India: Marc Faber


Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report states that he is against the demonetisation drive in India.