Marc Faber on US China Trade War, the Japan Trap

With global markets struggling for direction after a rocky start to the year, Dr Doom has been conspicuously absent from the conversation. Investment adviser Marc Faber, 72, who adopted the nickname in 1987 after a newspaper column highlighted his contrarian outlook on markets, has had a quiet six months.

Faber – a once regular guest on business news shows such as CNBC’s Squawk Box and Bloomberg Television – has faded from view since the publication of his October newsletter The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report for comments that were condemned as racist. This included a passage where Faber used offensive racial references in laying out a bleak picture for the US if its early immigration flows had been from Africa rather than Europe. He has since been dropped from the booking lists for programmes at Fox News and CNBC, according to Reuters.

At the time, Faber told Canada’s Global & Mail he stood by the remarks, saying in an email exchange that he did not regret writing the passage and that he had a free right to express his views.

When This Week in Asia spoke to Faber at his suite at the Grand Hyatt in Hong Kong this year, he sounded resigned to the loss of his appearances on business television.

“Everything in life and the universe has a timeline, it is transient. In other words, what you have today, you may not have tomorrow,” Faber said.

Known for a keen interest in history, and the works of innovators such as Russian “wave theory” economist Nikolai Kondratiev, Faber has slipped from the public spotlight just as global markets have entered a period of heightened volatility.

Faber was widely considered media gold at times of crisis for his tendency to speak candidly, tapping a pragmatism that seems tied to his upbringing in Zurich.

Faber also has a solid record in calling the market correctly. Among Barron’s Roundtable members in 2002 to 2011, he scored the second highest annualised return of 23.4 per cent among the eight annual stock-pickers, according to Pundit Tracker.

In February, the current market turmoil had not set in, yet Faber foresaw what was to become a major turning point for the markets, spelling out a gloomy forecast just days before the Dow Jones Industrials would record its largest single-day point decline.

“I don’t think markets will be very attractive this year and I want to own some cash,” Faber said at the time.

On May 1 he wrote in a monthly commentary that January’s high of 2,872 for the S&P 500 was a “major top”.

He advised investors to consider US government bonds, even as he cautioned in the long term that the US dollar was a “doomed currency”.

“My view is that a cash portfolio is safer with Treasuries than with banks,” Faber said.

In April, Faber told This Week in Asia he still favoured US Treasuries at the current yield on the 10-year near 2.9 per cent.

“The whole investment community, with a few exceptions, is negative on Treasuries. I have a different view,” Faber said. He holds about 30 per cent of his own investible assets in US government debt...

- Source, This Week in Asia