Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Dr Doom Issues a Stark Warning to All Investors

What many people missed and misunderstood in the early 1980s we had a major turning point. We went from consumer price inflation to asset inflation.

‘The first to rally were bonds after September 81. The second were stocks, August 82, and then real estate prices went up, art prices went up and so forth. But real assets under performed financial assets.

‘Now you look back at the period, 81, that is now more than 30 years ago. 2017-2018 we had in the world some consumer price inflation, especially in services, like insurance, but the big inflation was in assets. Asset prices kept on going up, and each time they came down there were more monetary injections by central banks.’

‘I think the world is conditioned that this asset inflation will continue. But I think there is a probability — that is very high — that the way consumer price inflation peaked out, in 1980, we may have a peak now in asset inflation. And it is conceivable to me that, for a very long time, like the Japanese market after 89 that peaked out at close to 40,000 and we are now at around 22,000, you know this is almost 30 years that for a long time stocks will not go up.

‘That is a possibility, and that also real estate will not be a very good investment […]. These are things that I think when you ask me if you ask me at the future what do you see. I think there is a real danger that this colossal asset inflation we have that created a lot of wealth inequality, that this is coming to an end.’