Saturday, January 26, 2019
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Marc Faber Speaks on the Dreary State of US stocks
"The slowdown in US economy seen since the start of 2018 and it is visible in the performance of US bonds", says Marc Faber, Editor & Publisher of "The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report".
He adds weak oil prices, signal economic slowdown.
- Source, ET Now
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Dr Doom Issues a Stark Warning to All Investors
What many people missed and misunderstood in the early 1980s we had a major turning point. We went from consumer price inflation to asset inflation.
‘The first to rally were bonds after September 81. The second were stocks, August 82, and then real estate prices went up, art prices went up and so forth. But real assets under performed financial assets.
‘Now you look back at the period, 81, that is now more than 30 years ago. 2017-2018 we had in the world some consumer price inflation, especially in services, like insurance, but the big inflation was in assets. Asset prices kept on going up, and each time they came down there were more monetary injections by central banks.’
‘I think the world is conditioned that this asset inflation will continue. But I think there is a probability — that is very high — that the way consumer price inflation peaked out, in 1980, we may have a peak now in asset inflation. And it is conceivable to me that, for a very long time, like the Japanese market after 89 that peaked out at close to 40,000 and we are now at around 22,000, you know this is almost 30 years that for a long time stocks will not go up.
‘That is a possibility, and that also real estate will not be a very good investment […]. These are things that I think when you ask me if you ask me at the future what do you see. I think there is a real danger that this colossal asset inflation we have that created a lot of wealth inequality, that this is coming to an end.’
‘The first to rally were bonds after September 81. The second were stocks, August 82, and then real estate prices went up, art prices went up and so forth. But real assets under performed financial assets.
‘Now you look back at the period, 81, that is now more than 30 years ago. 2017-2018 we had in the world some consumer price inflation, especially in services, like insurance, but the big inflation was in assets. Asset prices kept on going up, and each time they came down there were more monetary injections by central banks.’
‘I think the world is conditioned that this asset inflation will continue. But I think there is a probability — that is very high — that the way consumer price inflation peaked out, in 1980, we may have a peak now in asset inflation. And it is conceivable to me that, for a very long time, like the Japanese market after 89 that peaked out at close to 40,000 and we are now at around 22,000, you know this is almost 30 years that for a long time stocks will not go up.
‘That is a possibility, and that also real estate will not be a very good investment […]. These are things that I think when you ask me if you ask me at the future what do you see. I think there is a real danger that this colossal asset inflation we have that created a lot of wealth inequality, that this is coming to an end.’
- Source, Markets and Money
Friday, January 11, 2019
Why Marc Faber is looking to invest in badly hurt Indian stocks
If we look at the markets around the world, they have always been driven very much by the S&P500. In other words when S&P500 goes up, other markets go up some more and some less. Like in 2017, all the Asian markets grossly outperformed the US, and also European markets in 2018 most Asian markets have underperformed the US. I have to say there is an exception, which is India that has performed reasonably well, not that well in the US dollarNSE 2.45 % terms, but in local currency it is at least up for the year.
Since the beginning of the year if you analyse statistics, there was a slowdown in economic activity and in particular after August, business fell off a cliff. I talked to some people in August and they were still very optimistic about the future and in November they wrote that the revenues are 20 per cent below a year ago.
In other words they totally misread the economic slowdown that was going to take place in the second half and this economic slowdown is actually visible in the performance of bonds in the US. If you look at the stock market between October, early November and today, we are down say plus/minus 10 per cent, depending on the index.
Some indices are actually down from the peak by 20 per cent. But in the bond market, the 10-year US treasury has rallied since early November by 10 per cent. I think we will now consolidate and I am just saying that bond market was beginning to recognise the economic slowdown earlier than the stock market.
Since the beginning of the year if you analyse statistics, there was a slowdown in economic activity and in particular after August, business fell off a cliff. I talked to some people in August and they were still very optimistic about the future and in November they wrote that the revenues are 20 per cent below a year ago.
In other words they totally misread the economic slowdown that was going to take place in the second half and this economic slowdown is actually visible in the performance of bonds in the US. If you look at the stock market between October, early November and today, we are down say plus/minus 10 per cent, depending on the index.
Some indices are actually down from the peak by 20 per cent. But in the bond market, the 10-year US treasury has rallied since early November by 10 per cent. I think we will now consolidate and I am just saying that bond market was beginning to recognise the economic slowdown earlier than the stock market.
Monday, January 7, 2019
Asian markets have underperformed US, India remains an exception
Marc Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report , believes the reforms implemented by Prime Minister Narendra Modi are favourable for India. The only concern over Indian equities is their valuations, he told ETNow in an interview.
- Source, ET
Thursday, January 3, 2019
Marc Faber speaks on the dreary December for the US stocks
- Source, Times Now
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