Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Asian conflicts and the impact on natural resources

My view is this. We wouldn’t have a conflict in Asia if there was no intervention by the US. The US has the security pact with Japan and military and naval bases all over Asia. The Chinese economy is highly vulnerable in the interruptions in the supply of metals and oil, because 47% of global metals consumption is nowadays coming from China (up from 4% in 1990 and 10% in the year 2000). It has become a huge factor; for their industry, they need iron ore from Australia, copper from Australia, oil from the Middle East, etc. The Chinese are very concerned about interruptions of supplies. Over time, the Chinese would want to control the East and South China Sea. I do not think that they have any aggression plans. The US would not be particularly happy if the Chinese or the Russians would have military bases in the Carribean, Mexico, Canada, The Chinese cannot accept to be encircled by military bases by the US in Central Asia, in North East Asia and in South Asia. So I believe the tensions will increase over time.

- Source ETF Daily: