Monday, December 28, 2020
Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Friday, December 18, 2020
Marc Faber: The Economy Will Not Return for Years
Marc feels, “The economy is currently in a dead-cat bounce and that peak economic levels seen in 2018-2019 will not come back for a long-time… and by a long-time… years.”
Marc questions the belief that government and central banker actions create prosperity. This may be true in the short-term, but it likely has very negative consequences in the long-term. Governments are not very productive, and most things can be done far more efficiently in the private sector.
Marc discusses how he has seen firsthand the socialist and communist systems of the world and how they are a disaster for personal and economic freedom. He says, “Socialism always brings less freedom and unpleasant rulers.”
The Fed finances the state, and today many people are earning more staying at home than actually working. The government will undoubtedly have to institute further programs to support the populace.
The problem with rising assets is that it further increases wealth concentration. This, in turn, increases social tensions, and this instability can cause further hardships for the populace. It’s vital for a society to due what is right and not do things like make the stock markets go up.
He discusses the changes that have occurred in South-East Asia to create prosperity, particularly over the last twenty years. In terms of relative success, many Chinese are now as prosperous as Americans. Also, China’s infrastructure is quite new and modern in comparison to other countries.
- Source, Palisade Radio
Sunday, November 1, 2020
Wednesday, October 28, 2020
Saturday, October 24, 2020
Marc Faber: Pandemic predictions for gold, silver, stocks, real estate, bonds and bitcoin
Marc speaks with The Capital Network's Lelde Smits to discuss his outlook for investments including gold, silver, stocks, real estate, bonds, bitcoin.
Over the years Marc had told investors to hold diversified portfolios with equal 25% shares in stocks, real estate, cash and bonds and precious metals and Marc answers how his views have changed since the Federal Reserve shied away of its long-time commitment to inflation targeting in August 2020 and amid the COVID-19 global pandemic.
- Source, TCNTV
Monday, October 19, 2020
Marc Faber: India Will be a Top 3 Global Economy
He was our very first guest on the podcast and did a 2-part episode. At that time he talked to us about the rise of India as a major economy as well as his personal portfolio.
This time he shared his views on a range of topics: stocks, bonds, cash, gold, silver, real estate, the global economy, covid-19, and a lot more. Dr Faber is bullish on India and owns Indian stocks via an ETF.
He believes India is a top destination for global investors and that will not change. In fact he says the Indian economy will be the among the 3 largest In the world within twenty years!
Now that’s a strongly bullish statement on India coming from one of the best investors in the world.
He also talked about his personal investments and why he is investing his money the way he is right now.
We enjoyed talking to Dr Faber and also learnt a lot from him especially about the big social and economic forces, both on the left and the right, in the western world.
- Source, Equity Master
Friday, September 25, 2020
Marc Faber: Banned by Broadcasters, Read by Decision Makers
Nobody less than Jamie Dimon, CEO of the largest US bank JP Morgan, regularly reads the "Gloom Boom & Doom Report" by the stock market guru Marc Faber, who fell out of favor with the major networks some time ago. With this reading, Dimon is not alone among important decision-makers.
For decades, Marc Faber was a welcome key note speaker at conferences and a popular interview partner for journalists in general and TV anchor (wo) men of the major US networks in particular. But almost three years ago it was all over.
that Faber's openly expressed opinions and assessments, apart from the permanently indignant public, still resonate with important decision-makers today became evident. At the beginning of August, none other than JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon came out as a loyal reader of Faber's paid stock letter "Gloom Boom & Doom Report". And Faber repeatedly made it clear that other prominent actors read his letter regularly.
Plain words
Whether or not Faber's view that a black America would have been less or less economically successful is right or wrong is at best an academic discussion. We will never know if it is right or wrong. By contrast, his view of the central bank policy of our day is much more interesting. He describes the economists in the central banks as idiots, and the printing of money as a mistake. If one could actually generate wealth with the help of the printing press, one would have to ask the question why someone is still producing or working. Faber assumes that the unrestrained printing of money will cause us serious problems sooner or later. And if you look at the development of the gold price, you can assume that he is no longer alone with this assessment.
No more discourse
The fact that the liberal media brainwashed the public with regard to political correctness, Keynesian and political interventions is another Faber statement that one should think about in times of ever narrowing corridor of opinion. Because many discussions that used to be taken for granted and, in the Hegelian sense of thesis, antithesis and synthesis, ultimately led to progress through the discourse, no longer take place thanks to the increasing number of manslaughter arguments.
More of that, please!
We should therefore be glad that there are old, wise - yes, and also white - men like Marc Faber who are not ailing from the zeitgeist, no longer have to be considerate, stand by their opinion and do not adjust their flags to the wind. Because the truth is reasonable for people, as Ingeborg Bachmann said.
For decades, Marc Faber was a welcome key note speaker at conferences and a popular interview partner for journalists in general and TV anchor (wo) men of the major US networks in particular. But almost three years ago it was all over.
With the statement that he was glad that whites and not blacks had immigrated to the USA because the latter had not brought the USA forward, the economic situation in South Africa and Zimbabwe after the change of power from white served as evidence for his assessment too black.
This made him a "persona non grata" in a flash for the media, the NZZ headlined "Dr. Doom argues stupid", and several board members subsequently decided not to work.
Well-known investors and decision-makers up to CEOs among the readers
Well-known investors and decision-makers up to CEOs among the readers
that Faber's openly expressed opinions and assessments, apart from the permanently indignant public, still resonate with important decision-makers today became evident. At the beginning of August, none other than JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon came out as a loyal reader of Faber's paid stock letter "Gloom Boom & Doom Report". And Faber repeatedly made it clear that other prominent actors read his letter regularly.
Plain words
Whether or not Faber's view that a black America would have been less or less economically successful is right or wrong is at best an academic discussion. We will never know if it is right or wrong. By contrast, his view of the central bank policy of our day is much more interesting. He describes the economists in the central banks as idiots, and the printing of money as a mistake. If one could actually generate wealth with the help of the printing press, one would have to ask the question why someone is still producing or working. Faber assumes that the unrestrained printing of money will cause us serious problems sooner or later. And if you look at the development of the gold price, you can assume that he is no longer alone with this assessment.
No more discourse
The fact that the liberal media brainwashed the public with regard to political correctness, Keynesian and political interventions is another Faber statement that one should think about in times of ever narrowing corridor of opinion. Because many discussions that used to be taken for granted and, in the Hegelian sense of thesis, antithesis and synthesis, ultimately led to progress through the discourse, no longer take place thanks to the increasing number of manslaughter arguments.
More of that, please!
We should therefore be glad that there are old, wise - yes, and also white - men like Marc Faber who are not ailing from the zeitgeist, no longer have to be considerate, stand by their opinion and do not adjust their flags to the wind. Because the truth is reasonable for people, as Ingeborg Bachmann said.
- Source, Institutional Money
Monday, September 21, 2020
Three Bank Stocks to Buy Whose Day Is Coming
Marc Faber is a legendary investment advisor and fund manager. He publishes a monthly market commentary, which carries his view on different investments and asset classes, including bank stocks.
In his September issue, Faber opines that “at some point, the Awesome 8 will turn down and that investors will move funds into value type of stocks including resource stocks and banks.”
The “Awesome 8” here refers to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL,NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).
I am bullish on the Awesome 8 for the long term. However, I do believe that bank stocks can outperform these names in the coming quarters as investors look for value.
Reuters points out that banks sector’s forward price-book ratio is significantly below historical average. Valuations have not changed in the last few months with most bank stocks remaining sideways.
The Federal Open Market Committee expects U.S. GDP growth to decline by 6.55% for 2020. However, GDP growth is likely to bounce back to 5.25% in the coming year. The banking sector is the backbone of the economy and if GDP growth accelerates, bank stocks are likely to outperform.
With these factors in consideration, let’s take a look at the following bank stocks. These three bank stocks are attractive for the coming quarters as the economy gradually crawls back to normalcy...
In his September issue, Faber opines that “at some point, the Awesome 8 will turn down and that investors will move funds into value type of stocks including resource stocks and banks.”
The “Awesome 8” here refers to Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL,NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA).
I am bullish on the Awesome 8 for the long term. However, I do believe that bank stocks can outperform these names in the coming quarters as investors look for value.
Reuters points out that banks sector’s forward price-book ratio is significantly below historical average. Valuations have not changed in the last few months with most bank stocks remaining sideways.
The Federal Open Market Committee expects U.S. GDP growth to decline by 6.55% for 2020. However, GDP growth is likely to bounce back to 5.25% in the coming year. The banking sector is the backbone of the economy and if GDP growth accelerates, bank stocks are likely to outperform.
With these factors in consideration, let’s take a look at the following bank stocks. These three bank stocks are attractive for the coming quarters as the economy gradually crawls back to normalcy...
- Source, Nasdaq.com, read more here
Friday, September 11, 2020
Gloom Boom and Doom Report: Precious Metals Are Overbought, But the Potential For Gains is High
By now, with the strong performance of Treasury bonds, equities, and especially precious metals, all my readers who even had just a small allocation in gold and silver, have earned far more than the subscription price of this commentary.
Although we gold holders should all be happy about its performance, other assets such as US equities have also done fabulously well and have actually outperformed gold over the long term – this especially if we were to include dividends.
I just read an interview by Kate Welling with Joel Greenblatt, a well-known deep-value investor According to Greenblatt, stocks like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, all stocks which he holds in his portfolio, were inexpensive.
However, Greenblatt adds that, “it just seems quite unlikely that we have hundreds of companies that will match the performance of the best of all time. But people are giving them advance credit, in terms of their stock valuations, for being the next Amazon, the next Google. So, we are short hundreds of those companies.”
Maybe we are in a period during which a value stock is a company such as Microsoft, selling for 10-times sales and 31-times estimated earnings but not according to my value criteria. Noteworthy is that whereas the tech sector now accounts for 37% of the S&P market capitalization, aggregate sales for the sector make up for only 10% of the index. In other words, the ownership of FAANG and related stocks seems to be an extremely "crowded" trade.
Actually, I believe asset markets reflect closely what is occurring in the world. Take precious metals markets. They are moving up not necessarily because they expect high consumer price inflation but because investors realize that the purchasing power of paper money is being eroded through the excess creation of money and negative interest rates.
Also, a safe assumption is that central bankers around the world will continue to print money. In other words, the central banks' balance sheets will further expand. How does an investor protect himself from this monetary inflation? He seeks refuge in assets, which cannot be multiplied at the same rate that money can be printed, such as precious metals or crypto-currencies. The investor may also choose to move money into assets whose supply cannot be increased at all such as Rembrandt, Picasso, van Gogh, etc. paintings or old stamps.
I concede that precious metals are near-term overbought, and that the bullish consensus is high. But, at the same time, there is huge pool of potential investors which do not own any precious metals at all and could come into the market – most likely at far higher prices.
My advice is to hold a basic allocation to precious metals, and if desired take occasionally trading positions. Should confidence in the system erode (I am surprised there is still any confidence left) it would take little money in the context of the entire size of global financial assets and of the liquidity, which central bankers create, to boost precious metal prices much higher.
Although we gold holders should all be happy about its performance, other assets such as US equities have also done fabulously well and have actually outperformed gold over the long term – this especially if we were to include dividends.
I just read an interview by Kate Welling with Joel Greenblatt, a well-known deep-value investor According to Greenblatt, stocks like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, all stocks which he holds in his portfolio, were inexpensive.
However, Greenblatt adds that, “it just seems quite unlikely that we have hundreds of companies that will match the performance of the best of all time. But people are giving them advance credit, in terms of their stock valuations, for being the next Amazon, the next Google. So, we are short hundreds of those companies.”
Maybe we are in a period during which a value stock is a company such as Microsoft, selling for 10-times sales and 31-times estimated earnings but not according to my value criteria. Noteworthy is that whereas the tech sector now accounts for 37% of the S&P market capitalization, aggregate sales for the sector make up for only 10% of the index. In other words, the ownership of FAANG and related stocks seems to be an extremely "crowded" trade.
Actually, I believe asset markets reflect closely what is occurring in the world. Take precious metals markets. They are moving up not necessarily because they expect high consumer price inflation but because investors realize that the purchasing power of paper money is being eroded through the excess creation of money and negative interest rates.
Also, a safe assumption is that central bankers around the world will continue to print money. In other words, the central banks' balance sheets will further expand. How does an investor protect himself from this monetary inflation? He seeks refuge in assets, which cannot be multiplied at the same rate that money can be printed, such as precious metals or crypto-currencies. The investor may also choose to move money into assets whose supply cannot be increased at all such as Rembrandt, Picasso, van Gogh, etc. paintings or old stamps.
I concede that precious metals are near-term overbought, and that the bullish consensus is high. But, at the same time, there is huge pool of potential investors which do not own any precious metals at all and could come into the market – most likely at far higher prices.
My advice is to hold a basic allocation to precious metals, and if desired take occasionally trading positions. Should confidence in the system erode (I am surprised there is still any confidence left) it would take little money in the context of the entire size of global financial assets and of the liquidity, which central bankers create, to boost precious metal prices much higher.
- Source, Marc Faber via the Gloom Boom and Doom Report
Monday, September 7, 2020
Wednesday, September 2, 2020
Monday, August 31, 2020
Marc Faber: Guru's Mantra to Get Rich, and Stay Rich
Marc Faber has a simple, time-tested advice to get to those millions you've been dreaming of. Get a skill, and get better at it. This pandemic has upended the work culture as we know it, and finding your best talent can help you get ahead.
In a free-wheeling chat with ET NOW's Managing Editor Nikunj Dalmia, Marc Faber spells out a ready reckoner to get rich. Work, work and work, advises Faber. The secret sauce to becoming a billionaire is a heady mix of knowledge, focus, and acquisition of a new skillset. In Faber's words, posting pictures on Facebook thrice a day may score you 'Likes', but would add zilch to your bank balance.
You must ace that job, whatever you do, whether you are an economist or a computer technician. He adds, "If you want to be rich, money printing by the US Fed or the RBI isn't going to help you, that I guarantee you." The guru of investing believes hard work, focused discipline, and consistently improving knowledge and skills is the most certain path to become rich.
And if you already have millions stashed away in your account, should you be sitting tight? Well, Faber has a simple advice. Go buy land, or farmland in the countryside! With work from home becoming the new normal, more and more people are tilting towards finding an abode in the outskirts. The shift away from the city life is a trend worth betting on. Real estate in secondary locations could offer more potential than the ones in the heart of the city. He cites India as an example. Faber says, "the centre of Mumbai is not going to be particularly attractive but on the outskirts, maybe 1-2 hours from Mumbai, satellite towns offer property at a fraction of the price in Mumbai." In fact, he says, some people will also buy farms, and that can open interesting possibilities for the future.
In a free-wheeling chat with ET NOW's Managing Editor Nikunj Dalmia, Marc Faber spells out a ready reckoner to get rich. Work, work and work, advises Faber. The secret sauce to becoming a billionaire is a heady mix of knowledge, focus, and acquisition of a new skillset. In Faber's words, posting pictures on Facebook thrice a day may score you 'Likes', but would add zilch to your bank balance.
You must ace that job, whatever you do, whether you are an economist or a computer technician. He adds, "If you want to be rich, money printing by the US Fed or the RBI isn't going to help you, that I guarantee you." The guru of investing believes hard work, focused discipline, and consistently improving knowledge and skills is the most certain path to become rich.
And if you already have millions stashed away in your account, should you be sitting tight? Well, Faber has a simple advice. Go buy land, or farmland in the countryside! With work from home becoming the new normal, more and more people are tilting towards finding an abode in the outskirts. The shift away from the city life is a trend worth betting on. Real estate in secondary locations could offer more potential than the ones in the heart of the city. He cites India as an example. Faber says, "the centre of Mumbai is not going to be particularly attractive but on the outskirts, maybe 1-2 hours from Mumbai, satellite towns offer property at a fraction of the price in Mumbai." In fact, he says, some people will also buy farms, and that can open interesting possibilities for the future.
- Source, Times Now
Thursday, August 27, 2020
Marc Faber: The Value of Money Will Diminish Moving Forward
We have had a recovery but if you look at the recovery in equity prices in the US, it has been mostly concentrated in FAANG and FAANG related stocks. The New York stock exchange FAANG Index is at all-time high but there are just 10 stocks in that index and one of them is Tesla. That is not representative of the entire stock market.
Some stocks have made new highs although the semiconductor stocks and some other stocks have languished. Going forward, investors should look at stocks that have languished or are very depressed. Since you are talking so positively about stocks, let me just point out to you that no stock market in the world has outperformed gold and silver. This year gold is up 28% and silver 53%. So instead of talking and telling me that stocks are doing so well, you should be pointing out that gold and silver have done much better than any equities.
Let me point out some differences and similarities. In 1999 and 2002 and 2003, commodities had been in a bear market essentially since the 70s and in the case of precious metals, since 1980.
In other words a 20-year bear market. Now we were in the bull market until 2008 for oil and for gold and silver until 2011 and for agricultural commodities a little bit differently. But basically after 2011, commodities did not perform well. So we have been in a bear market until in the case of precious metals since December 2015.
After 2015 gold and silver have done well but they just made the new highs in the case of gold and in the case of silver, it has not made a new high yet. So I can say precious metals are relatively inexpensive.
What is really very depressed are agricultural commodities and industrial commodities. Lumber for example is some kind of an industrial commodity and that has gone ballistic recently. It has got up a lot but to answer your general question, if the Federal Reserve and other central banks are printing money, the value of money will diminish and that is not difficult to see.
Some stocks have made new highs although the semiconductor stocks and some other stocks have languished. Going forward, investors should look at stocks that have languished or are very depressed. Since you are talking so positively about stocks, let me just point out to you that no stock market in the world has outperformed gold and silver. This year gold is up 28% and silver 53%. So instead of talking and telling me that stocks are doing so well, you should be pointing out that gold and silver have done much better than any equities.
Let me point out some differences and similarities. In 1999 and 2002 and 2003, commodities had been in a bear market essentially since the 70s and in the case of precious metals, since 1980.
In other words a 20-year bear market. Now we were in the bull market until 2008 for oil and for gold and silver until 2011 and for agricultural commodities a little bit differently. But basically after 2011, commodities did not perform well. So we have been in a bear market until in the case of precious metals since December 2015.
After 2015 gold and silver have done well but they just made the new highs in the case of gold and in the case of silver, it has not made a new high yet. So I can say precious metals are relatively inexpensive.
What is really very depressed are agricultural commodities and industrial commodities. Lumber for example is some kind of an industrial commodity and that has gone ballistic recently. It has got up a lot but to answer your general question, if the Federal Reserve and other central banks are printing money, the value of money will diminish and that is not difficult to see.
- Source, Marc Faber via Economic Times
Monday, August 24, 2020
Marc Faber: Emerging markets including India will begin to outperform US
What a fabulous recovery we have seen not just for the developed markets but for emerging markets and India as well from the March lows! It seems like the doom is over, but is this the gloom or is it the boom which has played out?
Economically it is not over yet. As you know the economy fell off a cliff and whereas it has kind of recovered somewhat from the low point in April, they are far from where they were say a year ago. So to say that everything is hunky-dory is a wrong statement. The markets have recovered and if you had an index of mom-and-pop stores or small businesses, it would look disastrous, a complete collapse.
There are many small businesses in the western world that will not re-open, there are many businesses in emerging markets they will never re-open, maybe a new crop of businesses will come up. But if you say that everything is fine, it is sticking your head in the sand.
The reality asset markets have done well and the Federal Reserve has said repeatedly that they will address one of their concerns of wealth inequality. Well, so far that they have been very successful at making the rich people richer and the poor people essentially poorer...
Economically it is not over yet. As you know the economy fell off a cliff and whereas it has kind of recovered somewhat from the low point in April, they are far from where they were say a year ago. So to say that everything is hunky-dory is a wrong statement. The markets have recovered and if you had an index of mom-and-pop stores or small businesses, it would look disastrous, a complete collapse.
There are many small businesses in the western world that will not re-open, there are many businesses in emerging markets they will never re-open, maybe a new crop of businesses will come up. But if you say that everything is fine, it is sticking your head in the sand.
The reality asset markets have done well and the Federal Reserve has said repeatedly that they will address one of their concerns of wealth inequality. Well, so far that they have been very successful at making the rich people richer and the poor people essentially poorer...
- Source, Economic Times
Wednesday, August 5, 2020
Friday, July 31, 2020
Monday, July 27, 2020
Thursday, July 9, 2020
Saturday, July 4, 2020
Economist Marc Faber on Hong Kong's Future
- Source, Chris Oliver
Monday, June 29, 2020
Marc Faber Discusses Why You Need To Prepare For What Is Ahead
- Source, Cashflow Ninja
Friday, June 12, 2020
Dr Marc Faber: How Is Silver $15 With Unlimited Fed QE
- Source, Arcadia Economics
Monday, June 1, 2020
Fund manager warns investors could get hit with two crashes by end of the year
Michael Gayed called for a double-digit drop on the S&P 500. He followed that timely prediction in March with a forecast for a melt-up in stocks at the end of the month. He backed up that outlook in an interview with Bloomberg radio.
Clearly, he’s had his finger on the pulse of this volatile market since the coronavirus began spreading in the United States — just look at the 34% rally in his ATAC Rotation Fund ATACX, -1.10% for proof that his methods, in this climate at least, are paying off nicely.
If he’s got it right again, the pain is far from over for investors.
“Risk-off is about to return in two waves — first bonds, then stocks. Two crashes,” Gayed, who also publishes the Lead-Lag Report, told MarketWatch over the weekend.
He explained that he sees a “significant risk” that the yield curve steepens in a way that will shock markets and trigger a crash in Treasurys TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.678% .
“Reflation bets are increasing everywhere, and oil printing a negative price in the face of that suggests there is a very real feeling that global central banks and governments will stop at nothing to counter the deflationary forces of staying at home,” Gayed said. “Factually, inflation expectations have been rising alongside food prices due to supply-chain issues. Combined with unlimited QE, which in the past has caused yields to rise, it looks like bonds collapse first before stocks.”
He also touched on a theme that has many investors, especially the mom-and-pop types, scratching their heads. How can stocks continue to rally against what’s shaping up to be a depression in the economy? “The greatest disconnect in history,” as Gayed describes it.
Here he is talking about that “disconnect” last week with famed bear Marc Faber:
Ultimately, Gayed expects to see yields spike as they did prior to the 1987 crash.
“Should that occur, as I think is likely,” he said, “the conditions then would set up for another stock market crash afterwards as the overreaction to the reflation narrative comes to grips with the facts on the ground that life, at least for now, is going to look and feel very different for some time.”
Clearly, he’s had his finger on the pulse of this volatile market since the coronavirus began spreading in the United States — just look at the 34% rally in his ATAC Rotation Fund ATACX, -1.10% for proof that his methods, in this climate at least, are paying off nicely.
If he’s got it right again, the pain is far from over for investors.
“Risk-off is about to return in two waves — first bonds, then stocks. Two crashes,” Gayed, who also publishes the Lead-Lag Report, told MarketWatch over the weekend.
He explained that he sees a “significant risk” that the yield curve steepens in a way that will shock markets and trigger a crash in Treasurys TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.678% .
“Reflation bets are increasing everywhere, and oil printing a negative price in the face of that suggests there is a very real feeling that global central banks and governments will stop at nothing to counter the deflationary forces of staying at home,” Gayed said. “Factually, inflation expectations have been rising alongside food prices due to supply-chain issues. Combined with unlimited QE, which in the past has caused yields to rise, it looks like bonds collapse first before stocks.”
He also touched on a theme that has many investors, especially the mom-and-pop types, scratching their heads. How can stocks continue to rally against what’s shaping up to be a depression in the economy? “The greatest disconnect in history,” as Gayed describes it.
Here he is talking about that “disconnect” last week with famed bear Marc Faber:
Ultimately, Gayed expects to see yields spike as they did prior to the 1987 crash.
“Should that occur, as I think is likely,” he said, “the conditions then would set up for another stock market crash afterwards as the overreaction to the reflation narrative comes to grips with the facts on the ground that life, at least for now, is going to look and feel very different for some time.”
- Source, Market Watch
Friday, May 22, 2020
Investment expert Marc Faber: There are opportunities in emerging markets including Turkey
Swiss investor Faber, publisher and editor of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, assessed the effects of the coronavirus outbreak on the economy.
Faber, he peaked in February of shares in the United States, noting that compared to the US are currently growing markets in extremely low levels, "I think emerging markets with lower levels, including Turkey (future period) could rise again quickly. Mart in Market beginning in sales was made more than necessary. for investors in emerging markets will have the opportunity to win over 2-3 months. in Turkey included. " he spoke.
- "The financial and monetary policies implemented by the USA are extremely dangerous"
Stating that the US dollar is strong against the currencies of the markets that have been developing for a long time, but this situation may change, Faber said:
"By this time, the US dollar gained strength, gained 20 percent against the Brazilian real and the Mexican pesos. Last year, the Turkish lira also lost about 20 percent against the US dollar. We see that it continues this year as well. The Russian ruble also lost 20 percent against the dollar. "The dollar was very strong. But when I look at the US's financial deficit and money-making, I do not believe that the dollar can continue to be a strong currency. I think the financial and monetary policies implemented by the US in the long run are extremely dangerous and negative for the dollar."
- Winners and losers of the crisis
While evaluating the negative effects of the coronavirus epidemic on economies, Marc Faber said, "The programs implemented by governments as they move towards the crisis will have a serious economic impact. Western economies are already having a serious pre-coronavirus challenge. The Fed started to intervene in the repo market in September of last year. Along with the coronavirus large monetary and financial measures have been implemented. Many businesses will not reopen, go bankrupt, and many people will remain unemployed. " used expressions.
Stating that the global economy system will change drastically after the coronavirus epidemic is taken under control, Faber said that the revenues of the airline companies decreased by 95 percent and this situation will improve when the flights start, but the previous high levels may not be reached.
Faber said, "Some people will think 'we don't need to travel.' Some people will prefer to have conversations over Skype or Zoom rather than visiting their customers. People's behavior will change." he spoke.
Stating that the new system is the new winners and losers, Faber said, "Platforms such as Amazon, Netflix, Zoom have won. Retailers are losers ... Some big retailers (after quarantine) will never be able to open their shutters again." said.
- "People will move away from cities"
Swiss investor Faber stressed that retail companies have to be restructured and continued:
"If they do not change their operating models, they cannot be operational. For example, offices… There is an increasing tendency for people to work from home. Maybe they will only meet their employees once a week. There is no need for everyone to go to the office every day. "Maybe they will have a small office next to their house."
- "I don't think of selling my gold"
Marc Faber, his investments; He stated that he is located in 4 basic fields: real estate, stocks, bonds and precious metals.
Faber said that this year, precious metals and US treasury bonds are performing well with the strong US dollar, but US treasury bonds may not perform well in the next 2-3 weeks or 2-3 months.
Stating that he thinks gold is a bit too popular, Faber said, "This year may be a year of correction under the other. On the other hand, I do not intend to sell my gold. They are like my pension fund.
Faber, he peaked in February of shares in the United States, noting that compared to the US are currently growing markets in extremely low levels, "I think emerging markets with lower levels, including Turkey (future period) could rise again quickly. Mart in Market beginning in sales was made more than necessary. for investors in emerging markets will have the opportunity to win over 2-3 months. in Turkey included. " he spoke.
- "The financial and monetary policies implemented by the USA are extremely dangerous"
Stating that the US dollar is strong against the currencies of the markets that have been developing for a long time, but this situation may change, Faber said:
"By this time, the US dollar gained strength, gained 20 percent against the Brazilian real and the Mexican pesos. Last year, the Turkish lira also lost about 20 percent against the US dollar. We see that it continues this year as well. The Russian ruble also lost 20 percent against the dollar. "The dollar was very strong. But when I look at the US's financial deficit and money-making, I do not believe that the dollar can continue to be a strong currency. I think the financial and monetary policies implemented by the US in the long run are extremely dangerous and negative for the dollar."
- Winners and losers of the crisis
While evaluating the negative effects of the coronavirus epidemic on economies, Marc Faber said, "The programs implemented by governments as they move towards the crisis will have a serious economic impact. Western economies are already having a serious pre-coronavirus challenge. The Fed started to intervene in the repo market in September of last year. Along with the coronavirus large monetary and financial measures have been implemented. Many businesses will not reopen, go bankrupt, and many people will remain unemployed. " used expressions.
Stating that the global economy system will change drastically after the coronavirus epidemic is taken under control, Faber said that the revenues of the airline companies decreased by 95 percent and this situation will improve when the flights start, but the previous high levels may not be reached.
Faber said, "Some people will think 'we don't need to travel.' Some people will prefer to have conversations over Skype or Zoom rather than visiting their customers. People's behavior will change." he spoke.
Stating that the new system is the new winners and losers, Faber said, "Platforms such as Amazon, Netflix, Zoom have won. Retailers are losers ... Some big retailers (after quarantine) will never be able to open their shutters again." said.
- "People will move away from cities"
Swiss investor Faber stressed that retail companies have to be restructured and continued:
"If they do not change their operating models, they cannot be operational. For example, offices… There is an increasing tendency for people to work from home. Maybe they will only meet their employees once a week. There is no need for everyone to go to the office every day. "Maybe they will have a small office next to their house."
- "I don't think of selling my gold"
Marc Faber, his investments; He stated that he is located in 4 basic fields: real estate, stocks, bonds and precious metals.
Faber said that this year, precious metals and US treasury bonds are performing well with the strong US dollar, but US treasury bonds may not perform well in the next 2-3 weeks or 2-3 months.
Stating that he thinks gold is a bit too popular, Faber said, "This year may be a year of correction under the other. On the other hand, I do not intend to sell my gold. They are like my pension fund.
- Source, Translated to English from Haberturk
Monday, May 18, 2020
Marc Faber: Placing everyone in confinement is pure tyranny
On a personal level, it was not the worst crisis I have ever faced. I had many crises when I was younger, but today I have a big house, a big garden and my own office. Consequently, the current crisis affects me less on a personal level.
But things that I never imagined are happening : public authorities which paralyze an entire country, close shops and cafes, and which, like here in Thailand, prohibit the sale of alcohol. I never thought it could happen. Democracy is going up in smoke. The government has taken the reins and behaves like dictators.
Is containment not in the interest of the health of the population?
Statistics show that there are more deaths from diabetes or cardiovascular disease than from coronavirus victims. The measures taken are disproportionate to the disease and will cause more deaths than the Covid-19. It is the poor who will suffer the most from confinement.
But don't get me wrong: I am in favor of quarantining infected people. However, I believe that it is pure tyranny to confine everyone.
How do you explain this decision?
Don't ask me to explain the logic of policy makers. It is a fact that many countries are not led by their Prime Minister, but by incompetent bureaucrats who are not affected by containment and who continue to receive their salaries. But many citizens will find themselves in poverty because of the lockdown.
But things that I never imagined are happening : public authorities which paralyze an entire country, close shops and cafes, and which, like here in Thailand, prohibit the sale of alcohol. I never thought it could happen. Democracy is going up in smoke. The government has taken the reins and behaves like dictators.
Is containment not in the interest of the health of the population?
Statistics show that there are more deaths from diabetes or cardiovascular disease than from coronavirus victims. The measures taken are disproportionate to the disease and will cause more deaths than the Covid-19. It is the poor who will suffer the most from confinement.
But don't get me wrong: I am in favor of quarantining infected people. However, I believe that it is pure tyranny to confine everyone.
How do you explain this decision?
Don't ask me to explain the logic of policy makers. It is a fact that many countries are not led by their Prime Minister, but by incompetent bureaucrats who are not affected by containment and who continue to receive their salaries. But many citizens will find themselves in poverty because of the lockdown.
- Source, Translated from Lecho
Thursday, May 14, 2020
Wall Street Bulls Battle the Bears in Mother of All Recessions
FedMed proved dead awhile ago with the whole Bulls team looking dead on the field, until Team Trump, the owner’s club, joined Coach Powell. Then Powell’s coaching team upped its game; and, finally, the Wall Street Bulls revived. “Big deal!” the Bears now yell. “Let’s get back to playing ball!”
All the government juices served in the Bullpen may have floated the dead Bulls into another rally. Yay Bulls! But they’re dead, even if they dance like phantoms.
(By the way, this article is long, but it’s not half as long as listening to an actual ball game, and it’s a whole lot more important, so hang in there; or take an intermission halfway through, because there is a lot from a short time span to cover in order to fully lay out how bad this looks for the Bulls at a time when people still think they’re making a comeback.)
The Bulls woke up during a frantic locker-room pep talk then went back out to the field and played their hardest. They now anticipate that the worst of their game is over and they are about to make a come-from-behind win. I forecast, however, they are about to get their heads stomped into the Bullpen dust … again.
In fact, that will happen again and again because we are only in the third inning after the Bulls scored almost a 50% comeback, and they look wrung out like it’s game over when we have yet to even see what real carnage the Bears can bring. The Bulls are about to find, as always the case with these World-Series-sized Wall-Street wipeouts, they’re just caught in a trap set by the Bears.
In all their irrational, greedy, drunken exuberance, the Bulls mistook this to be the the final inning for a return home to victory … because the Wall Street Bulls just can’t wait to get back into the money-making game that Coach Powell, who moved onto their team from the Federales ten years ago, pep-talked them into.
The Bulls motto under Powell and former coaches Yellen and Bernanke became “Never fight the Fed.” That has taken them to victory for years, but their streak has ended, and it’s going to end in face-wiping disgrace.
As I’ve said for years right along side their rise, Coach Powell and his gang will not be able to save them when the next recession hits, and we’re there! The Bears are now coming back into the ball field for cleanup.
The Bulls are full of … something.
The Bullheads, as their fans are called, including the talking heads on TV that cheer them on during inning changes, are about to see the biggest defeat in history. Bear Coach Bill Bonner recently pointed out some of the world’s dumbest headlines pumped out by the Bullheads:
Our economy is the greatest it has ever been!Donald Trump, 20 January, 2020, Team Owner.
Bloomberg Economics sees global growth slowing to 1.5% year on year.Bloomberg, 9 February, 2020, Co-Owner of the Wall Street Bulls, betting for a slight edge in victory by the end of the 2020 series.
‘There is no systemic risk. No one is even talking about that.’Goldman Sachs conference call to the team, mid-March, reported by Marc Faber
Oh my gosh, the outrageous volume of completely asinine headlines and comments I could point out from the most popular sportscasters in finance and the Bulls top leaders just a month ago; but I’ll stay with Bonner’s short list as exemplary and move on to his game commentary as one of the few worth listening to:
The real truth?
The initial jobless counts by the Bears against the Bulls at the top of the second inning pitched the biggest strikes against the Bulls in US history.
Bloomberg: ‘US Jobless Claims Soar to Once-Unthinkable Record 6.6 Million’. The figure topped all analyst estimates and compared with a median projection of 3.76 million.Bonner in The Rum Rebellion
And still the Bulls rallied and then rallied again when the nasty strikes happened again.
This is closer to real Black Swan stuff. This week’s unemployment filings, compared to the last half-century, are considered by frequentist statistics as a 30-sigma event: less likely to happen than if you had to select one atomic particle at random out of every particle in the universe, and then randomly again select that same particle five times in a row.
‘A 30-sigma event should be outrageously unlikely, at universe-scale. But they happen. And when they do, they warn us: the problem is not that the universe didn’t behave correctly. The problem is that we were wrong.’
Bonner was referring to another team known as the Black Swans that has been known in the past to beat the Bulls down just when they thought they were winning. The recent voluntary shutout that almost instantly swept the globe as people stayed at home and sheltered in place to watch the game is something never seen in the history of the WORLD! Yet, the Bonehead Bulls, as they are about to become known, are still betting up! You could not find a more extraordinary example of boneheadness in world history.
And this is supposedly Wall Street’s greatest team. So, after the most prolonged scoring by the Bears (dead-bull bounce as I call it) in Wall Street’s history, we now get to see the Bulls pulverized all over again. Overconfident from years of winning, due only to steroids provided by Powell and, of late, by Team Owner Trump, they actually were in such a stupor they believed the game had turned in their favor even though they were still down by half; yet, the real bad news for the Bulls is just getting started! The Bullheads cheering them on are in their own mind-bending crowd, so let the trouncing begin in earnest as the Bears take the ball game back over.
We watched the tape. The US economy is in freefall. Stock market dip-buyers should be running scared.
But wait…no! Bad news is good news…up is down…dumb is smart. They bid up the Dow more than 400 points.
Go figure. The worst economic news ever received…and the stock market goes up? Have investors completely lost their minds?
And then up and up and up again. The Bullheads wrote loops of commentary to each other about how smart the Bulls were for rallying on the world’s biggest crash, and they restored Bull confidence after one of their greatest inning crashes. The Bulls, the commentators said, were alive and well again! Some that I read said, “It’s now S&P 4,000!” (Ra Ra, Bulls.)
As the brighter Bonner went on to say, it all made some sort of bullheaded sense because the Federal Reserve just went all-in on the grandest bailouts in global history, while the Federal government also made bigger bailouts for the Bulls than it did during the Great Depression era defeat, which happened before the Bull’s ten-year run.
The Braindead Brainard-Fed Bulls took this as certain proof new victory is coming because they have been conditioned to think bailouts can accomplish anything. In my view, the new bailouts are already larger than anything we saw during the Bulls’ Great Recession defeat, but they will be ineffective anyway. Team Trump and the Fed Heads who own and manage the Bulls already got away with bailing out the losers! We’ll see a $4 trillion USA deficit before the year is over.
We saw …
… a massive infrastructure package upgrading the nation’s broadband, road and water systems, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday, in the next installment of Congress’ effort to help the country weather the destructive blows inflicted by the coronavirus outbreak.’
That isn’t going to save the Wall Street boys.
Now, the Feds are in charge. The government will soon be spending over half GDP. And they’ll destroy the rest in good time. How? The old-fashioned way…a stark-naked, third-world-ish, sh*thole country, money-printing lollapalooza. We’re all socialists now!
Indeed we are. (At least, as a nation, though not yet all as individuals. I’m still here; you’re still here; we’re not that dumb to think socialism, of all things, will save us from the unbridled corruption we’ve allowed to flourish in capitalism.)
The MMT-ers…the big spenders…the dreamers and schemers…the Hillarys, the Sanders, the big government lovers…all the jackasses in the DC metropolitan area — lobbyists, cronies, policy wonks. They all have their pulses revved up, their mouths slobbering…and their illusions in Full Retard mode.
Yup. They’re anticipating a strategy that’s been called the Big Bull Rush now that the owners have pumped in more bonus money than the players ever dreamed of for this next part of the game, but you can see the owners, when caught in candid photos, don’t look as enthusiastic as they pretend to be.
All the government juices served in the Bullpen may have floated the dead Bulls into another rally. Yay Bulls! But they’re dead, even if they dance like phantoms.
(By the way, this article is long, but it’s not half as long as listening to an actual ball game, and it’s a whole lot more important, so hang in there; or take an intermission halfway through, because there is a lot from a short time span to cover in order to fully lay out how bad this looks for the Bulls at a time when people still think they’re making a comeback.)
The Bulls woke up during a frantic locker-room pep talk then went back out to the field and played their hardest. They now anticipate that the worst of their game is over and they are about to make a come-from-behind win. I forecast, however, they are about to get their heads stomped into the Bullpen dust … again.
In fact, that will happen again and again because we are only in the third inning after the Bulls scored almost a 50% comeback, and they look wrung out like it’s game over when we have yet to even see what real carnage the Bears can bring. The Bulls are about to find, as always the case with these World-Series-sized Wall-Street wipeouts, they’re just caught in a trap set by the Bears.
In all their irrational, greedy, drunken exuberance, the Bulls mistook this to be the the final inning for a return home to victory … because the Wall Street Bulls just can’t wait to get back into the money-making game that Coach Powell, who moved onto their team from the Federales ten years ago, pep-talked them into.
The Bulls motto under Powell and former coaches Yellen and Bernanke became “Never fight the Fed.” That has taken them to victory for years, but their streak has ended, and it’s going to end in face-wiping disgrace.
As I’ve said for years right along side their rise, Coach Powell and his gang will not be able to save them when the next recession hits, and we’re there! The Bears are now coming back into the ball field for cleanup.
The Bulls are full of … something.
The Bullheads, as their fans are called, including the talking heads on TV that cheer them on during inning changes, are about to see the biggest defeat in history. Bear Coach Bill Bonner recently pointed out some of the world’s dumbest headlines pumped out by the Bullheads:
Our economy is the greatest it has ever been!Donald Trump, 20 January, 2020, Team Owner.
Bloomberg Economics sees global growth slowing to 1.5% year on year.Bloomberg, 9 February, 2020, Co-Owner of the Wall Street Bulls, betting for a slight edge in victory by the end of the 2020 series.
‘There is no systemic risk. No one is even talking about that.’Goldman Sachs conference call to the team, mid-March, reported by Marc Faber
Oh my gosh, the outrageous volume of completely asinine headlines and comments I could point out from the most popular sportscasters in finance and the Bulls top leaders just a month ago; but I’ll stay with Bonner’s short list as exemplary and move on to his game commentary as one of the few worth listening to:
The real truth?
The initial jobless counts by the Bears against the Bulls at the top of the second inning pitched the biggest strikes against the Bulls in US history.
Bloomberg: ‘US Jobless Claims Soar to Once-Unthinkable Record 6.6 Million’. The figure topped all analyst estimates and compared with a median projection of 3.76 million.Bonner in The Rum Rebellion
And still the Bulls rallied and then rallied again when the nasty strikes happened again.
This is closer to real Black Swan stuff. This week’s unemployment filings, compared to the last half-century, are considered by frequentist statistics as a 30-sigma event: less likely to happen than if you had to select one atomic particle at random out of every particle in the universe, and then randomly again select that same particle five times in a row.
‘A 30-sigma event should be outrageously unlikely, at universe-scale. But they happen. And when they do, they warn us: the problem is not that the universe didn’t behave correctly. The problem is that we were wrong.’
Bonner was referring to another team known as the Black Swans that has been known in the past to beat the Bulls down just when they thought they were winning. The recent voluntary shutout that almost instantly swept the globe as people stayed at home and sheltered in place to watch the game is something never seen in the history of the WORLD! Yet, the Bonehead Bulls, as they are about to become known, are still betting up! You could not find a more extraordinary example of boneheadness in world history.
And this is supposedly Wall Street’s greatest team. So, after the most prolonged scoring by the Bears (dead-bull bounce as I call it) in Wall Street’s history, we now get to see the Bulls pulverized all over again. Overconfident from years of winning, due only to steroids provided by Powell and, of late, by Team Owner Trump, they actually were in such a stupor they believed the game had turned in their favor even though they were still down by half; yet, the real bad news for the Bulls is just getting started! The Bullheads cheering them on are in their own mind-bending crowd, so let the trouncing begin in earnest as the Bears take the ball game back over.
We watched the tape. The US economy is in freefall. Stock market dip-buyers should be running scared.
But wait…no! Bad news is good news…up is down…dumb is smart. They bid up the Dow more than 400 points.
Go figure. The worst economic news ever received…and the stock market goes up? Have investors completely lost their minds?
And then up and up and up again. The Bullheads wrote loops of commentary to each other about how smart the Bulls were for rallying on the world’s biggest crash, and they restored Bull confidence after one of their greatest inning crashes. The Bulls, the commentators said, were alive and well again! Some that I read said, “It’s now S&P 4,000!” (Ra Ra, Bulls.)
As the brighter Bonner went on to say, it all made some sort of bullheaded sense because the Federal Reserve just went all-in on the grandest bailouts in global history, while the Federal government also made bigger bailouts for the Bulls than it did during the Great Depression era defeat, which happened before the Bull’s ten-year run.
The Braindead Brainard-Fed Bulls took this as certain proof new victory is coming because they have been conditioned to think bailouts can accomplish anything. In my view, the new bailouts are already larger than anything we saw during the Bulls’ Great Recession defeat, but they will be ineffective anyway. Team Trump and the Fed Heads who own and manage the Bulls already got away with bailing out the losers! We’ll see a $4 trillion USA deficit before the year is over.
We saw …
… a massive infrastructure package upgrading the nation’s broadband, road and water systems, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday, in the next installment of Congress’ effort to help the country weather the destructive blows inflicted by the coronavirus outbreak.’
That isn’t going to save the Wall Street boys.
Now, the Feds are in charge. The government will soon be spending over half GDP. And they’ll destroy the rest in good time. How? The old-fashioned way…a stark-naked, third-world-ish, sh*thole country, money-printing lollapalooza. We’re all socialists now!
Indeed we are. (At least, as a nation, though not yet all as individuals. I’m still here; you’re still here; we’re not that dumb to think socialism, of all things, will save us from the unbridled corruption we’ve allowed to flourish in capitalism.)
The MMT-ers…the big spenders…the dreamers and schemers…the Hillarys, the Sanders, the big government lovers…all the jackasses in the DC metropolitan area — lobbyists, cronies, policy wonks. They all have their pulses revved up, their mouths slobbering…and their illusions in Full Retard mode.
Yup. They’re anticipating a strategy that’s been called the Big Bull Rush now that the owners have pumped in more bonus money than the players ever dreamed of for this next part of the game, but you can see the owners, when caught in candid photos, don’t look as enthusiastic as they pretend to be.
- Source, Goldseek
Monday, May 4, 2020
Marc Faber: A Strong Dollar Won't Survive The COVID-19 Pandemic
"So far the dollar has been very strong against some currencies, up more than 20% this year, against the Brazilian real and Mexican pesos, but if you look at the fiscal deficit of the U.S. and all the money printing, I just can’t believe that it will continue to be strong," Marc Faber, a Swiss investor, told Anadolu Agency.
The dollar could be strong for another 10 days or so, but in the long run, the U.S. monetary policies are dangerous and negative for the currency, he added.
Saying that to date emerging markets have not rallied a great deal in the current crisis, he said there is a window of opportunity for the next two to three months to make some money in emerging markets, including in Turkey.
Bankruptcies
On the pandemic’s economic impact, Marc Faber said interventions by governments to stem the crisis will have serious effects.
Western economies already faced serious problems before the virus hit, he said, and now with the coronavirus crisis things will get worse, he added.
"The U.S. Fed started intervening in the repo market starting from September of last year. Then the coronavirus came and we had this huge intervention, monetary and fiscal measures,” he related.
"That is cushioning the recession and depression, but I think after all the restrictions are lifted, a lot of businesses won’t be opening, a lot of people will go bankrupt and companies will default."
Stating that the global economy system will change drastically after the pandemic is under control, Faber said that airline revenues plunged 95%.
He added that this situation will improve when international flight service resumes, but the previous high levels may be out of reach.
Some people will think they no longer need to travel and would prefer to talk by video link rather than face-to-face visits with customers, he predicted.
"People's behavior will change," he said
Stating that economies in the wake of the virus will have new winners and losers, Faber said: "Platforms such as Amazon, Netflix, and Zoom have won. [Brick-and-mortar] retailers are losers."
"Some big retailers will never be able to open their shutters again," he predicted.
- Source, AA.com
Friday, May 1, 2020
Monday, April 27, 2020
Friday, April 24, 2020
Monday, April 20, 2020
Marc Faber: On the Road to Perdition
According to an analyst, “12 months from now, no one will regret buying stocks,” which are “now at the lowest levels since 2016.” I agree that stocks are extremely oversold despite their sharp rebound in the last few days.
However, I am not so sure that stocks will be higher in twelve months. Nobody regretted not buying the Nikkei Average after the initial 30% decline in 1990 because the Japanese market continued the downtrend for much longer – admittedly with intermediate powerful bear market rallies. It finally bottomed out in 2008.
Similarly, from the March 2000 top the NASDAQ 100 dropped 40% to an intermediate low in May 2000 (two months after the top). From this intermediate low, a 3-month 41% rally followed, which led to renewed severe weakness and brought the NASDAQ 100 Index down to the ultimate low at 795 in October 2002 (down 83% from the March 2000 high). I am sure that nobody really missed anything for not buying the NASDAQ 100 after the first initial decline.
The economist JR Hicks opined about the 1929 crash and the depression that, "Really catastrophic depression is most unlikely to occur as a result of the simple operation of real accelerator mechanism; it is likely to occur when there is profound monetary instability – when the rot in the monetary system goes very deep." This was certainly the case in the late 1920s but probably far less so than what is now the case.
I need to warn my readers that this report is not exactly moral boosting and spirit lifting.
Regarding the Corona Virus please remember the words of Gustave Le Bon, In The Crowd he opined:
"Ideas, Sentiments, emotions, and beliefs possess in crowds a contagious power as intense as that of microbes….. A panic that has seized on a few sheep will soon extend to the whole floc. In the case of men collected in a crowd all emotions are very rapidly contagious, which explains the suddenness of panics."
However, I am not so sure that stocks will be higher in twelve months. Nobody regretted not buying the Nikkei Average after the initial 30% decline in 1990 because the Japanese market continued the downtrend for much longer – admittedly with intermediate powerful bear market rallies. It finally bottomed out in 2008.
Similarly, from the March 2000 top the NASDAQ 100 dropped 40% to an intermediate low in May 2000 (two months after the top). From this intermediate low, a 3-month 41% rally followed, which led to renewed severe weakness and brought the NASDAQ 100 Index down to the ultimate low at 795 in October 2002 (down 83% from the March 2000 high). I am sure that nobody really missed anything for not buying the NASDAQ 100 after the first initial decline.
The economist JR Hicks opined about the 1929 crash and the depression that, "Really catastrophic depression is most unlikely to occur as a result of the simple operation of real accelerator mechanism; it is likely to occur when there is profound monetary instability – when the rot in the monetary system goes very deep." This was certainly the case in the late 1920s but probably far less so than what is now the case.
I need to warn my readers that this report is not exactly moral boosting and spirit lifting.
Regarding the Corona Virus please remember the words of Gustave Le Bon, In The Crowd he opined:
"Ideas, Sentiments, emotions, and beliefs possess in crowds a contagious power as intense as that of microbes….. A panic that has seized on a few sheep will soon extend to the whole floc. In the case of men collected in a crowd all emotions are very rapidly contagious, which explains the suddenness of panics."
- Source, Marc Faber
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Marc Faber on the Global Pandemic and the New Climate we Find Ourselves in
Dr. Faber is a Swiss investment adviser, analyst, author and founder of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, a popular online publication that "highlights unusual investment opportunities around the world."
He met with Climate & Capital to discuss the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: What will get better, what will get worse, and what just might become the new normal in a fast-evolving economy.
- Source, Climate and Capital Media
Friday, April 10, 2020
Tuesday, March 31, 2020
Friday, March 27, 2020
Marc Faber: This Is Not a Recession, It’s an Ice Age
Even though stocks across Europe, the U.S. and Asia looked to be heading for some welcome reprieve on Friday, analyst Stephen Isaacs said the coronavirus crisis is “unprecedented” since there were already record levels of leverage and overbought stocks.
“We came into this with all sorts of problems hiding within the momentum of a massive bull market, which again leads me to feel extremely concerned that the selling is only abating temporarily, and that we are still looking, unfortunately at a very, very difficult situation,” the chairman of Alvine Capital Management’s
investment committee told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
- Source, Ameer Rosic
Saturday, March 21, 2020
As the coronavirus outbreak expands to more countries, it may have adverse effect on stock markets
It seems the markets might not be away from the impact of the deadly Coronavirus. A report by Livemint showed that investors have been selling the stocks with Nifty 50 being down 7% from in the past six trading sessions.
On Friday, Bajaj Finance Ltd was trading 7% lower. Experts feel that the impact of the virus can potentially start a long-term global slowdown. The fall in the trade is also due to the present equity valuations which are already stretched.
The report further states that both domestic and global markets were already trading at record levels and extremely high valuations a month ago. Nifty soared to a price-earnings multiple of over 19 timeson the financial year of 2021 earnings, which is quite worrisome. Any slowdown in the global markets will see the stocks getting re-priced at lower rates.
The larger concern remains to what extent will the markets be affected by the virus. Europe is now registering newcases while America has also seen a spike in cases. Global equity research firm Jefferies has warned that the outbreak of the disease can not just cause a problem for hospitals but also rattle the markets as well. Jefferies further noted, “If not managed correctly, this could significantly rattle markets.”
Tourism, as well as the airline sector,are in danger of shrinking if the virus remains rampant. Due to Wuhan being the origin point of this disease, prices of major metals are down. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and upstream oil and gas companies are also vulnerable to a slowdown since China accounts for about 15% of the global economy.
Although India is not directly affected, a global risk-off mode means foreign investors will be shuffling their portfolios and gold to safe havens such as US Treasuries. So, prolonged uncertainty in the equity market cannot be ruled out until the impact of the virus can be quantified and curtailed.
The markets can regain itself, depending on the pace to which the virus can be contained.
According to Marc Faber, thecoronavirus is just the catalyst to a decline which had started by ignoring the slowdown of the global economy since 2019. So the virus simply has enforced its impact. On Friday, the BSE Sensex plunged nearly 1,450 points amid rising concerns of the virus.
On Friday, Bajaj Finance Ltd was trading 7% lower. Experts feel that the impact of the virus can potentially start a long-term global slowdown. The fall in the trade is also due to the present equity valuations which are already stretched.
The report further states that both domestic and global markets were already trading at record levels and extremely high valuations a month ago. Nifty soared to a price-earnings multiple of over 19 times
The larger concern remains to what extent will the markets be affected by the virus. Europe is now registering new
Tourism, as well as the airline sector,
Although India is not directly affected, a global risk-off mode means foreign investors will be shuffling their portfolios and gold to safe havens such as US Treasuries. So, prolonged uncertainty in the equity market cannot be ruled out until the impact of the virus can be quantified and curtailed.
The markets can regain itself, depending on the pace to which the virus can be contained.
According to Marc Faber, the
- Source, OP India
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Press Panic Button, or Use Crash to Buy Stocks?
"If Indian stocks, the blue chips I am talking about, are selling at 40-50 price-to-earnings ratios, I think the market has a significant downside risk, given that the coronavirus is destroying the entire conference industry, the entire travel industry, business travel, the hospitality industry.
For a while, nobody is going to travel. So I am telling you India is as vulnerable, if not more, than other markets."
- Source, Economic Times India
Saturday, March 14, 2020
Tuesday, March 10, 2020
Friday, March 6, 2020
Marc Faber Explains the Risk Off Mode
- Source
Tuesday, March 3, 2020
Marc Faber: What Do Low Crude Oil Prices Mean?
- Source
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Marc Faber: Prime Minister Modi is on the Right Track
- Source, CNBC
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
Mark Faber: Inflation or Deflation in 2020?
- Source, Jay Taylor Media
Saturday, February 15, 2020
Trump provides Great Entertainment Overseas, Marc Faber Says
- Source, Fox Business
Tuesday, February 11, 2020
Marc Faber on when doom arrives for Wall Street
- Source, Fox Business
Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Dr Marc Faber: The Fed Started QE to Infinity in 2008
Which hasn’t created wealth in Japan. And is not going to fix the underlying economic issues that the politicians in the west are doing their best to ignore either. He discussed the manipulation in the precious metals markets.
What’s happening in the palladium and rhodium markets where prices have begun to go vertical. And how he’s positioning both himself and his clients for what’s about to come next.
- Source, Arcadia Economics